Week 1 a "success"

Week 1 saw some very interesting results. The JEHPR was 5-3 on recommended picks but only 7-9 overall. I was a bit dissappointed but then I realized that a couple games screwed me. I picked the Jets, Bengals to be closer then the line and it was a close game but unfortunately it was bit of a shootout. Last minute drives screwed me on the Giants vs. Eagles and 49ers vs. Falcons (each drive went the "wrong" way for me) and the Broncos vs. Chiefs and Titans vs. Dolphins were essentially the same line as the published line (both were 3 vs. 2.5) that went the wrong way for me...

Some interesting results after week 1
Top 5: Jaguars, Browns, Redskins, Jets, Steelers
Bottom 5: Dolphins, Bills, Bears, 49ers, Texans

I wouldn't expect the Jaguars to hold up (especially after that performance by Leftwich) but it's pretty interesting that in their last 4 games they've aloud 6, 7, 0 and 10 points and an average of 226 yards allowed. That's a pretty dominating defense. Also impressive are the Redskins who have shutout 2 of their last 4 opponents and dominated a completely overmatched Bucs Offense.

For those of you that are curious how the JEHPR works with regards to preseason, I roll off a week of preseason each week until they're all gone. So the first JEHPR based entirely on "real" stats will be week 4.

There are still 3 games that don't have lines yet but we've got a busy week this week for recommended games. There are already 8 games to look at. (I'm VERY surprised by the number of picks to cover spreads... very unusual for the JEHPR)


Broncos @ Jaguars: Jaguars by 5 (-3)
Steelers @ Ravens: Steelers by 2 (-4)
Texans @ Lions: Lions by 6 (3)
Colts @ Titans: Titans by 9 (2)
Bears @ Packers: Packers by 8.5 (8.5)
Redskins @ Giants: Redskins by 8.5 (3)
49ers @ Saints: Saints by 4 (7)
Rams @ Falcons: Falcons by 2 (2.5)
Panthers @ Chiefs: Panthers by 1 (-6)
Seahawks @ Bucs: Seahawks by 2 (2.5)
Browns @ Cowboys: Browns by 1.5 (-4)
Patriots @ Cardinals: Cardinals by 3 (-8)
Bills @ Raiders: Raiders by 7.5 (3.5)
Jets @ Chargers: Jets by 2.5 (3)
Dolphins @ Bengals: Bengals by 8 (4.5)
Vikings @ Eagles: Eagles by 1 (3.5)

Take the Jaguars, Steelers, Browns, Cardinals (ugh) and the points and take the Titans, Redskins Raiders and Bengals to cover. Good luck. I will update this later this week.

JEHPR week 1

I want to give those of you who don't know about the JEHPR a brief overview (for those of you that already know about it you can skip to the bottom).

The JEHPR is the Jeffrey Edward Hall Power Rankings. They are a series of coefficients that rank Offense, Defense and Strength of Schedule to determine a "best" NFL team. The numbers are then combined to form a way to handicap games for betting purposes. Historically, I'm batting 55% ish overall but well over 60% for my recommended games (somewhere near 66% last time I checked). While I would never recommend that someone bet all of my recommended games blindly (the JEHPR doesn't figure in injuries for one... ) it has proven an excellent tool for several friends to help identify games that have irrational spreads. It has proven far more reliable then the Sagarin Rankings and the hypothetical spreads that it produces have proven to be roughly 50-50 (slightly in favor of the underdog). If anyone wants some technical information or has any questions please feel free to post or to email me. Now, on to the rankings.

Bear with me as I'm trying to find an easy to read format. For this first week I will probably just list the teams and then give the picks... not sure what else to do. I'll have to look into posting excel sheets into the Blog.


1 Panthers
2 Bucs
3 Jaguars
4 Titans
5 Ravens
6 Browns
7 Redskins
8 Seahawks
9 Cowboys
10 Jets
11 Steelers
12 Raiders
13 Saints
14 Bengals
15 Dolphins
16 Vikings
17 Lions
18 Falcons
19 Colts
20 Broncos
21 Chargers
22 Giants
23 Bills
24 Chiefs
25 Packers
26 Bears
27 Rams
28 Eagles
29 Patriots
30 Texans
31 Cardinals
32 49ers

That definitely takes up too much space so I'll have to look for a better way. Here's my picks with my lines Danny Sheridan's lines in (). Those games that appear in bold are my "recommended" picks (note that the recommended picks are based purely on math and don't take into account any last minute changes or injuries). If a number in ()'s is negative then it means that I am taking the opposite position from the published spread (as in the first game in which the Patriots are expected to win but I am picking the Colts by .5


Colts @ Patriots: Colts by 0.5 (-3.5)
Titans @ Dolphins: Titans by 2.5 (3.0)
Raiders @ Steelers: Steelers by 2 (4.0)
Bucs @ Redskins: Bucs by 0.5 (-1.5)
Ravens @ Browns: Browns by 0.5 (-3.0)
Jaguars @ Bills: Jaguars by 5 (-3.0)
Bengals @ Jets: Jets by 3 (4.5)
Lions @ Bears: Push (Bears by 3.0)
Cardinals @ Rams: Rams by 3.5 (11.0)
Seahawks @ Saints: Seahawks by 0.5 (2.0)
Chargers @ Texans: Chargers by 0.5 (-5.0)
Giants @ Eagles: Push (Eagles by 9.0)
Cowboys @ Vikings: Cowboys by 0.5 (-4.5)
Falcons @ 49ers: Falcons by 5.5 (3.5)
Chiefs @ Broncos: Broncos by 2.5 (3.0)
Packers @ Panthers: Panthers by 9.5 (3.0)

So if you were to bet strictly on the JEHPR you would take:
Colts, Browns, Jaguars, Cardinals, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys and the points and you would take the Panthers to cover. Again, I encourage anyone who is interested to ask me about the details and the methodology (I'm a nut for this kind of stuff) and I also encourage anyone who is going to place wagers to do so responsibly and after doing their own research into the games.

Hurricanes and Hurricanes and... Hurricanes? Oh My

I've lived in Florida all my life and this is by far the craziest Hurricane season I can remember. Already we've had 9 named storms while a "typical" hurricane season has 10 and doesn't peak until mid September. Bonnie, Charlie and Frances all hit Florida with varying degrees of force. We got really lucky with Frances that it weakened and sped up a little before it hit. At one point it was 145mph winds moving at 4mph but by the time it made land fall it was more like 115 and 8mph so that damage was alot less then it could have been.

We're still watching Ivan but it appears that it will go a little South of us.

I'm going to be working on the JEHPR today and posting my preliminary results tonight.