Monday, November 26, 2012

LoL new meta predictions

Season 3 isn't quite out yet on LoL but we're already seeing cracks in the current meta. At present, the meta stands this way

Top lane: Generally a bruiser type or other character with good sustain. You're expected to stand on an island for the initial 10 minutes of the game. Prototypical example: Malphite, Yorick
Mid lane: AP carry. That's a magic focused burst damage character. Prototypical example: Diana, Avinia
Bottom lane: AD Carry (physical, sustained DPS) and a support character. Prototypical example: Ezreal, Soraka
Jungler (roamer): Generally some sort of aoe damage dealer because that's what the jungle favors right now. Also important to have a good initiate. Prototypical example: Amumu, Nautilus

The reasons are thus:

Dragon is the more important early game objective to control. Baron doesn't spawn until 15 minutes in and usually isn't reasonably killable until 25 minutes or so. Dragon, on the other hand, can be killed pretty much at anytime if the team gets the chance. So you typically want to have two people in the bottom lane. The XP gain dynamic is different then the gold gain dynamic. Gold gain is binary. if you kill the creep, you get the gold. If you don't, you get nothing. XP gain, on the other hand, is given to all champions within a rather long range and its split. So you want characters that scale well off experience in solo lanes and ones that scale off gold in duo lanes. Generally, the AD Carries (which are TYPICALLY auto-attacked focused) scale better off of gold while the AP carries (magic based burst damage) scale better off of levels. Additionally, the middle lane is the easiest to retreat from while the top lane is the most "isolated".

It's not without merit to mention that the top/bottom symmetry created by Baron/Dragon also has a (smaller) bit of left/right symmetry created by the red and blue buffs on the respective teams. The red buff is on the "bottom" for the blue team (the team in the bottom left) and it's on the "top" lane for the purple team (coming from the top right). The blue buff is opposite. The blue buff is a big Cooldown / Magic regen buff while the red buff is a big buff to auto-attacks.

What's going to change in Season 3?

Well, the jungle is going to be "less focused on the AoE champions". They've specifically said they want Fiddlesticks and Warwick back in the jungle (specifically calling them out but presumably other single target champions with sustain would work too). They're introducing Hunter's Machete (extra damage to neutral monsters) and a refillable potion chalice. Those two items can BOTH be purchased to start the game. That should make pretty much ANY character capable of soloing the Jungle which means that the primary jungle attributes going forward will be ability to gank and movement. Bursty champions. Champions with CC. Champions with a good initiate. All of those will be important.

Predictions: I expect to see Warwick, Fiddlesticks, Nunu and (maybe) Diana being the kings of the Jungle. At least at first.

Gold changes. They're tweaking down slightly the gold from creeps and tweaking UP the gold over time. The net affect of this will be that, support characters get a little more gold and whomever they were supporting will get a little less. It will also reduce (but by no means eliminate) the importance of last hitting. So you'll see slightly stronger support champions and slightly weaker duos (AD carries if the meta doesn't shift). It also MIGHT create more assymetry between sides with the buff emphasis mattering more. This would be great because in standard play, you don't know whether you're going to be blue or purple going in so if, for example, the meta shifted to this.

Blue team: Unchanged team composition but red buff going to the AD carry on bottom and blue buff going to AP Carry mid (after the first time) means the jungler is somewhat XP starved. This could result in blue team focusing on counter jungling (stealing the opponent's jungle) or the jungler jumping into the top lane more often to leach some xp and pressure top. It also means that the red team will have a big advantage over the purple team as a result of the red buff.

Purple team: The purple team gets a bit more changed. Possibly the purple team wants a more AD focused jungler to take advantage of the red buff. Possibly they send their AP Carry bottom lane to take advantage of blue buff. A tankier ranged AP carry (Swain or Gragas for example) could pull this off. A hybrid character may take over as Jungler and claim both buffs (think Jax). You could also see early, and rapid, lane shifts as AD carry and support go top with a bruiser on bottom fighting essentially under the tower. That kind of lopsided game (1v2 on top and 2v1 on bottom) could allow for really scary ganks (particularly with the new single target focused junglers lurking).

I can see a meta revolving around really strong junglers (both the player and the character) and trying to constantly create 2v1 opportunities by shuffling people around. I think you'll see this play style more from the purple team than the blue team as the blue side has a much more "stable" setup (with red buff and blue buff being naturally in the places you want them).

But then, what do I know ;)

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