Monday, January 28, 2008

The generation divide

I've been thinking alot about the problems facing social security and our current deficit. I think we're going to see an increasingly large generational divide between the young and the old. Thanks to the hype surrounding this election and Obama's appeal to the youth, we're seeing huge voter turnouts and political participation. That's bringing a lot of people into discussions they wouldn't have had before. This is no small thing. Many of these people are going to start asking questions like:

1) Why is social security failing? (answer: It's a pyramid scheme that should've been fixed a long time ago)
2) Why do we have a national debt? (answer: Because we've spent more than we've taxed)
3) Whose fault are 1 and 2? (answer: It's grey... but you can certainly put a larger portion of the blame on Baby Boomers then on the people 20-35)

The AARP is widely regarded as the most powerful "silent" lobby in America. They're not as flashy as some of the bigger groups. Nor as loud (I'm looking at you ACLU!). But they're involved in a lot of things and it's not politically smart to attack them... ever. Old people are sympathetic and old people vote.

The problem is that the AARP, by definition, is looking out for people with a shorter planning period then the rest of America.

Here's the facts (trying not to bring politics into it)

1) We've spent more money then we've brought in from taxes. To the tune of $9 trillion dollars. That's an amount of money that's unfathomable to most people. That's roughly the size of 30 (yes 30) Microsoft Corporations.
2) Our taxes are at historic lows.
3) Congress hasn't authorized an expense reducing budget in a long long time (ever?)

I think there's going to be a growing number of the younger generation that look at those things and blame the older generation. The divide won't be quite so pronounced amongst the Gen X crowd (60s-late 70s) but will probably be felt pretty strongly by the Gen Y group (late 70s through the early 90s)... This group of people is young enough to feel morally segregated from the decisions of the older generation (it's hard for a 28 year old to feel responsible for something that started when they were 20... let alone an 18 year for something that happened when they were 10)... And yet it's this group of people that will be beginning to take over control of the government in 2017 when things are projected to start coming into more clear focus... I think we're going to see a lot of articles, rhetoric and discourse surrounding the notion that, "The very people that created the problem are now milking it with Social Security"... The political backlash could potentially be severe.

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