Iowa Caucus Predictions

Haven't posted in a long time but I wanted to go on the record with my predictions for tonight in case they pan out. This way, if I'm right, I can point people to the blog and show how brilliant I am. If I'm wrong, well, maybe noone will ever see my blog ;)

Here's my predictions for the Republican side:
1) Huckabee wins by a very, very narrow margin over Romney
2) Romney finishes second
3) McCain finishes a strong third (not close to Romney but statistically significant difference from the next two)
4) Thompson slightly ahead of Ron Paul
5) Ron Paul
6) Rudy Giuliani (again, separated from Paul and Thompson)

For the Democrats:
1) Obama
2) Edwards
3) Clinton
4) Richardson
5) Biden

it'll be very close at the top 3. I'll also say, I may be misreading what I believe to be the populism of Iowa. If that's the case, I would expect Huckabee to finish second and Edwards third as they are the two most populist candidates in their stump speeches. I have Edwards finishing 2nd because he's the 2nd choice for ALOT of people. I think there were alot of people that liked Edwards but then shifted to Richardson or the other fringe candidates as they became known. As those people fail to hit the 15% mark, you'll see some of them shifting back to Edwards. Edwards is also targeting the more rural areas which Kerry did to great success 4 years ago.

On the Republican side, I think it'll be very close. If Huckabee wins in a walk, that could spell the end for Romney since he would be exceptionally unlikely to win New Hampshire. McCain's numbers have been impressive in Iowa and I think he's well respected for speaking the truth (no hint of pandering when someone goes to Iowa and says he's pro-immigration and anti-ethanol). Ron Paul continues to do well in a state known for its independence (maybe there's a secret love of the gold standard in Iowa).

One of the truly fascinating things about this election season is going to be the action of the third parties. If Giuliani picks it up in New Hampshire and Florida, we may again see this discussion of a third party candidate. Michael Bloomberg continues to be coy about his possible candidacy and Ron Paul has raised a TON of money without much media help (and, oh by the way, he's run for office as a libertarian before). None of those candidates overlap (neither Bloomberg nor Paul is a favorite of the social conservatives... Bloomberg is decidedly more pro-business then Paul who's the libertarian)

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we could have, at least temporarily, 5 presidential candidates after the primaries. That would virtually guarantee a win for the Democrats but it might be actually a better deal for one of the independents. If Paul takes 10% from the Republicans and the social conservative candidate takes 10% from the Republicans then Bloomberg just needs to take 15% from the Democrats along with 10% from the Republicans to be viable.

Tonight is like a little mini-superbowl for me so I'm pretty excited. Have fun!