Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Let's take a look at the Fed statement

The fed continues to raise interest rates in quarter point increments and doesn't appear to be stopping. Today's announcement looks almost identical to June's announcement but, as usual, there are some subtle differences. Let's take a look, shall we?

June:
This sentence, "Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually," became, "Aggregate spending, despite high energy prices, appears to have strengthened since late winter, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually" in August. In essence, they have strengthened their argument that the markets are strong by giving a specific economic example of what they're looking at.

This sentence, "Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained," became, "Core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, but pressures on inflation have stayed elevated," in August. Again, this is a small shift showing that they are looking at the core index, specifically, for inflation indications. This also appears to be a small warning that they're looking beyond the index at other economic factors for future inflation.

These were the only two changes in the text and they are, even for the Fed, relatively minor. What they seem to indicate is a shift towards specific areas of focus. Greenspan has long pointed towards consumer spending as the driver behind the recovery. It is unlikely that he is going to be worried about the economy as long as the job sector and consumer spending continue to be robust. This Fed, over the past 10 years, has been relatively constant in its belief that if people are working and spending money then everything else will work its way out.

I would look for another quarter point bump at the end of September and another in November. That would bring Fed Funds rate to 4% which would be at the bottom range of what most people consider "neutral" (4-5% is generally regarded as neutral, some people expand this to 3.5 - 5.5% or 3 - 6% but 4-5% is the general rule of thumb). Barring a collapse in the consumer spending numbers or the job number it is unlikely that we'll see anything but another .25% in October.

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