Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Surprisingly competitive

Traditionally, European and South American teams have dominated the World Cup (and let's be clear, by South American we mean Brazil and Argentina). As FIFA has pushed for more balance amongst the confederations we have seen some strong performances by Asian and North/Central American teams (Korea, USA, Mexico, etc.) but this year has been very different. We've had a return to traditional power dominance of the group stages but with a HUGE increase in competitiveness across the board. Let's look at the groups

Group A: One of the least competitive groups, the surprise here is that Ecuador (the 3rd place team from CONMEBOL) leads the pack. Two teams guaranteed, two teams eliminated.

Group B: A surprisingly strong showing from T&T has left Sweden needing a result against England. One team guaranteed, one team eliminated.

Group C: Supposed to be the group of death. This group has produced the most lopsided result in the tournament thus far (6-0 Argentina over S&M) and has it's two teams already decided... Additionally, since their next round opponent is still up in the air (and the two likely teams are roughly even), I would expect Wednesday's game to be pretty dull. Two teams guaranteed, two teams eliminated.

Group D: Widely regarded as a fairly weak group. Angola pulled up a bit of a surprise by holding Mexico to a 0-0 draw. Mexico still has its foot in the door, however. One team guaranteed, one team eliminated.

Group E: The real group of death. This group is completely up in the air and will (hopefully) come down to the wire in exciting fashion on Thursday. No teams guaranteed, no teams eliminated.

Group F: This team always got a little bit too much flak. Despite not playing in many World Cups, Australia is a quality team. As are Croatia and Japan. This team essentially has 1 clear winner and 3 2nd place teams and that's exactly how it's panned out. One team guaranteed, no teams eliminated.

Group G: A group that was supposed to be easy for France has turned into a nightmare. They finally scored (after 4 Cup games without goals) but they're still on the outside looking in a win by France and a tie in the other game opens up all kinds of wacky tiebreaker opportunities. No teams guaranteed, one team eliminated.

Group H: Spain is firing on all cylinders and Ukraine appears to be back on track. One team guaranteed, no teams eliminated.

Let's look at our guaranteed teams real quick.
Ecuador, Germany, England, Argentina, Holland, Portugual, Brazil, Spain... The only surprising name on that list is Ecuador.

And what about the eliminated teams?
Poland, Costa Rica, Paraguay, Ivory Coast, Serbia & Montenegro, Iran, Togo... No many surprises there (Poland being the closest thing to a surprise).

My predictions for the final 16 (brackets included)

left side
Germany vs. Sweden
Argentina vs. Mexico
Italy vs. Australia
South Korea vs. Ukraine

right side
England vs. Ecuador
Portugal vs. Holland
Brazil vs. USA
Spain vs. France

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