Thursday's games
The two biggest games in US soccer will be occuring simultaneously on Thursday. USA vs. Ghana and Italy vs. Czech Republic. Here's a quick run down of the scenarios involved.
GS vs. XX means that total goals scored vs. X opponent's total goals scored will be in play
CR = Czech Republic
USA loses or ties: We go home
USA wins by 1: We need Italy to win OR CR win by 4 (GS vs. Italy) OR CR win by 5+
USA wins by 2: Italy to win OR CR win by 3 (GS vs. Italy) OR CR win by 4+
USA wins by 3: Italy to win OR CR win by 2 (GS vs. Italy) OR CR win by 3+
USA wins by 4: Italy to win OR CR win by 1 (GS vs. Italy) OR CR win by 2+ OR CR/Italy Tie (GS vs. CR)
USA wins by 5: Any scenario and we advance
Want to hear the crazy scenario?
We win 3-0 and the Czechs win 3-1. In that case the group table looks like this
CR 6 points, 6 goals scored, +3 goal differential
Italy 4 points, 4 scored, 0 differential
USA 4 points, 4 scored, 0 differential
Ghana 3 points, 2 scored, -3 differential
At that point it comes down to (essentially) head to head with Italy which we tie on and we would have to draw lots (I'm not kidding... goto FIFA.com and read the tournament rules)...
That would make it the most important straw pull in American soccer history
Now that we've looked at the absurd, let's talk about something more concrete... Who's Arena going to start? I see a number of possibilities.
1) Stick with the formation: This is, essentially, praying for an Italian win.
Cherundulo, Onyewu, Conrad, Bocanegra
O'Brien
Dempsey, Reyna, Donovan, Convey
McBride
2) Rest the weary and carded: Again, praying for an Italian win.
Cherundulo, Conrad, Berhalter, Bocanegra
Olsen
Dempsey, O'Brien, Donovan, Convey
Ching
3) Tweak the formation: Knowing that Ghana will be without it's best forwards might make us be more enterprising
Conrad, Onyewu, Bocanegra
Cherundulo, O'Brien, Reyna, Dempsey, Lewis
Donovan, McBride
4) Go for the Gusto: Goals is what's going to increase our chance of advancing so goals is what we go for
Cherundulo, Onyewu, Bocanegra, O'Brien
Dempsey, Olsen, Donovan Convey
Johnson, McBride
If it were me, I'd go with the last option... However, there's probably a pretty decent chance that he goes with option 3 (or some variant thereof)...
2 Comments:
Since I just want to advance at this point, I guess it's kind of a good thing that the second place team from the group will more than likely have to play Brazil. Having Brazil sitting there should be the spur to force Italy to play for a win instead of sitting on their heels and playing not to lose.
I think O'Brien's inclusion is likely but I doubt it will be in Convey's slot. That's why I've got him at DMid or at left back (DMid being the most likely).
Post a Comment
<< Home