Election Predictions

It's always nice to go on the record with elections so I won't be any different...

My current estimate is the following

Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, Hawaii go Democrat (221)

Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Alaska go Republican (191)

That leaves
Nevada (6)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Wisconsin (10)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)

My best GUESS is the following
Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania go Democrat (+35 = 256)
North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa go Republican (+34 = 225)

You need 270 to win
so Florida is a must win for Romney, as is Ohio. Wisconsin he could lose as long as he wins the other two (resulting in a razor thin 266 vs. 272 Romney win)

Note, it's possible that Nevada and Colorado fall Republican allowing Ohio to be expendable (if he wins Wisconsin). I think Pennsylvania is a stretch for Romney and I think North Carolina is a stretch for Obama (i.e. if the "wrong" guy wins that state, it probably just means a giant land slide across the map).

If Romney picks up Florida and Ohio, the only way for Obama to win would be to flip a state like Iowa, Idaho or Arizona. Note, however. Larry Sabato (a VERY well respected wonk) thinks Iowa is Democrat leaning. I don't see it but he has access to data wayyyy better than I do and he makes it his job to actually dissect the polls and then run them through his own numbers. He has Romney losing 290 - 248 but flipping Ohio would make it 272 - 266 and then basically ANYTHING else would be a Romney win.

Because of the map, we'll know an Obama win early (if Romney doesn't win Ohio and Florida it's pretty much certain to be over) but we won't know a Romney win until late (because there's some toss ups that matter in the west like Colorado and Nevada.